“This article expresses my personal analysis based on publicly available financial data and market reports.”
Bajaj Finance Shares: Strong Q2 but Growth Guidance Trimmed
When you hear that Bajaj Finance is growing its profit by 22% year-on-year yet the stock falls about 6%, you know something deeper is at play. The headline is impressive—yet the caution signals matter. Let’s unpack what this means for investors.
Q2 Highlights — Why the Uplift for Bajaj Finance Shares
In the July–September quarter of FY26, Bajaj Finance posted a net profit of ~Rs 4,875 crore, up 22% from a year ago. Key numbers:
- Assets under management (AUM) rose ~24% to about Rs 4.62 lakh crore.
- Net interest income (NII) also increased by ~22% to Rs 10,785 crore.
These figures suggest strong demand for credit, and often that’s exactly what investors like to see in an NBFC. For many watching the shares, “growth” remains the buzzword.
The Spoiler — Why Growth Guidance Was Cut
According to Moneycontrol, Here’s where things get interesting. Despite the strong numbers, management lowered the FY26 AUM growth guidance to 22-23% (from a higher earlier expectation). Also, the gross NPA (non-performing assets) number crept up to 1.24% from 1.03% in the previous quarter.
So while profit and growth look good now, the worry is: can this pace be maintained? Investors and brokers alike are watching whether asset quality or pressure in certain segments will slow things down.
Brokerages See Opportunity — But With Caution
Many brokerage houses still like the stock—here’s a snapshot:
- Morgan Stanley maintains an “Overweight” rating with a target of ~Rs 1,195. It sees trimmed guidance as a possible buying window.
- HSBC raised its target to ~Rs 1,200, citing stable return metrics and cost control.
- On the flip side, Bernstein is more cautious, issuing an “Underperform” and a target of ~Rs 640, pointing to rising NPAs and scale-related strain.
The takeaway? Many brokers see a long-term potential (driven by credit growth, tech efficiency, retail penetration), but the near-term risks (asset quality, slower growth) are flagged.
What I Think — And What It Means for You
If I were to speak plainly, Bajaj Finance shares look like a growth story with caveats. On one hand, the numbers are strong and the brand is trusted. On the other hand, the trimmed guidance is a red flag for how aggressively the company can scale moving forward.
For an investor with a medium-to-long horizon (3-5 years) and an appetite for risk, this could be a solid opportunity: you buy into the growth narrative now when guidance is conservative. For someone more risk-averse or seeking quick gains, you might prefer to wait for clearer signs on asset quality and guidance recovery.
Let me share a personal observation: In the world of NBFCs, momentum often comes from new segments, digital efficiency, and tight cost controls. Bajaj is ticking those boxes (brokers mention “cost to income eligible” and “agency + digital additions”). But the jump from good growth to great growth often requires clean asset quality and no surprises. And surprise is what markets fear.
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Why 2025 Trends Make This Interesting
We’re in the thick of a macro phase where:
- Credit uptake is strong, especially in retail and consumption segments.
- Interest rates may be stabilising, which is good for lending margins.
- NBFCs are under the microscope on asset quality (thanks to MSME, auto, 2-3W segment stresses).
In this context, Bajaj Finance is an interesting bellwether for how big non-bank lenders will perform. If it navigates the guidance drag well and keeps asset quality intact, many believe it can continue outperforming. If not, the market may peg it back.
Conclusion
Bajaj Finance’s Q2 shows solid growth, but the trimmed guidance reminds us that even strong names are not immune to headwinds. Personally, I feel the stock represents an interesting “growth-with-caution” story—if you’re willing to ride out near-term bumps, the medium-term might reward you. But if you need guaranteed high growth in 2025, you might want to watch from the sidelines for now.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, not US News Weeks. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Source : Moneycontrol - Bajaj Finance Shares
✍️ Written by Nikhil Singh
Market & IPO Analyst | Business News Writer | Tech-Auto Observer
Nikhil has been tracking Indian IPOs, consumer brands, tech & automobile overview, and financial trends since 2019. His writing style blends market insight with a relatable human voice — making complex data simple for everyday investors.
